CORSIA take-off: Market dynamics expected to accelerate procurement for aeroplane operators

This year marked a pivotal moment for the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) with the transition from a voluntary scheme to an active, compliance mechanism. One of the key moments was ICAO's 42nd Assembly, where CORSIA was reaffirmed as the only global market-based measure for international aviation CO2. At the same time, ICAO expanded Phase I eligible programme options and confirmed the first set of standards that are approved for Phase II. What's more, for the first time, airlines started receiving state notifications indicating their 2024 offsetting requirements. The result: many operators are expected to move from CORSIA estimates to CORSIA procurement plans.

This blog post is for sustainability, compliance, treasury and procurement teams within aeroplane operators impacted by CORSIA obligations and focuses on what changed this year, what it means for your sourcing strategy, and what to do next.

While demand is moving ahead, the supply side of the market is characterised by constraints, driven by specific ICAO criteria and evolving regulatory bottlenecks. This situation creates strategic urgency: despite an estimated total market demand for the 2024 year alone of around almost 50 million eligible carbon credits (Source: Carbon Pulse), the pool of fully eligible and tagged on the approved registries remains limited, currently sitting at only an estimated ~18 million tonnes (Sources: GSF Registry, ART Registry, as of 18/Dec/25). This significant gap highlights a key strategic risk: delayed procurement might expose operators to volatility, potential price spikes, and competition for a limited volume of verified units.

Key factors shaping CORSIA supply:

• To address some of the gaps mentioned above, ICAO has expanded the potential supply pool, though with increased complexity. For Phase I (2024–2026), ICAO broadened the list of approved standards by adding Isometric and Premium T-Ver, joining the existing six approved standards (including Gold Standard and Verra). However, units generated under any standard must still adhere to specific project types and vintage restrictions (e.g. limits on grid-connected renewables over 15 MW and certain large-scale REDD+ projects).
  Why does this matter for airlines? Supply is expanding, but near-term “buyable" volumes are still limited, and the gap matters for price and delivery risk.
• Gold Standard has approved new insurance products that support CORSIA eligibility pathway under its programme, adding policies from providers including Artio, CFC and Oka.
  Why does this matter for airlines? It will increase the number of projects able to reach CORSIA eligible labelling on the registry.
• The Council of the European Union shared the position of potential additional requirements on the units, originating from (1) states implementing the Paris Agreement and (2) participating in CORSIA.
  Why does this matter for airlines? For EU-based carriers, an additional eligibility filter with premium may apply. (Further implementation act to follow possibly in Q1)

South Pole supports aeroplane operators for more than a decade. We leverage close to two decades of carbon market experience and a global platform to help operators secure compliance obligations strategically and cost-effectively.

• CORSIA supply pipeline: We hold one of the largest portfolios of CORSIA-eligible projects, including 30+ projects across 6 technologies (e.g., clean cooking, water purification, biogas) and three continents. This diversified pipeline ensures hedging opportunities and a stable source of supply for Phase I and the future.
• Strategic advisory: We work with operators to define their long-term offset strategy, providing a government roadmap regarding their host country's Article 6 of the Paris Agreement plans, and the implications for unit eligibility.
• Proven aviation track record: Our experts have supported 50+ aviation companies since 2015, providing comprehensive guidance on carbon market journeys, including advisory for flagship carriers on compliance and portfolio optimisation.
• Compliance certainty: We help navigate the intricate details of ICAO and jurisdictional requirements, ensuring that every procured unit meets both ICAO's technical eligibility and any specific EU or national rules.