South Pole launches guide to navigate carbon market shifts and net zero in 2026

4 February 2026, Zurich: Voluntary carbon markets are entering a pivotal phase that will reshape corporate climate strategies for years to come, according to South Pole's newly released Carbon Markets Buyer Guide.

Carbon credits are evolving beyond their traditional role as an offsetting tool, driven by megatrends that will define the market through to 2030. South Pole's guide highlights that, alongside deep decarbonisation, securing a long-term supply of high-quality carbon credits is the definitive strategy for companies seeking to meet net zero targets while building resilience against rising carbon costs.

In 2026, climate action is not optional - even as some governments scale back formal climate policy. Record heat, escalating physical risks and supply chain volatility are creating material financial pressures. At the same time, investors and stakeholders expect credible transition plans that address unavoidable emissions, anticipate emerging compliance schemes, and strengthen supply chain resilience. South Pole's latest Net Zero Report shows that almost three-quarters (73%) of financial institutions want portfolio companies to have a carbon credit strategy, and 77% find companies with transition plans more attractive to finance. With global demand for high-quality credits projected to increase sevenfold by 2030, companies need to prepare now.

Against this backdrop, four themes will shape carbon credit buying decisions in 2026 and beyond:

• Integrity: As integrity and digitalisation become the norm, buyers should demand stricter due diligence and greater standardisation of credit quality
• Demand: Net-zero targets are driving buying strategies, reinforced by legal enforcement of green claims and growing compliance obligations for specific sectors (e.g. CORSIA for aviation)
• Policy: The progression of national carbon pricing schemes and the decline of “carbon neutral" claims will coincide with new frameworks like the EU Carbon Removal Certification Framework and CBAM's first financial phase
• Price: Continued price divergence and the recognition of carbon credits as a strategic asset class will increase prices for high-quality credits, making forward purchase agreements essential

"Last year was tough for the climate. Extreme weather events were widespread, yet we saw a rollback of key policies," said Marco Magini, Executive Director, Certificates at South Pole. “But 2026 will mark a shift in carbon markets, as integrity becomes the norm and the market matures. Investors and boards now expect companies to demonstrate transparent risk management and climate resilience. Within this, high-integrity carbon credits play an important role in complementing credible net zero and transition plans by managing a company's residual emissions. Hedging against price shocks for high-integrity credits, especially for removal credits where demand is rapidly outstripping supply, will be the definitive strategy for 2026."

South Pole's Carbon Markets Buyer Guide provides a forward-looking view of the shifts shaping 2026 and beyond. It encourages buyers to establish a credible path to net zero using the SBTi standard once finalised; secure long-term supply through multi-year agreements; align procurement with emerging integrity standards; and communicate their approach transparently and meaningfully.

Read the full guide here

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